Many times over the past few weeks, I have been like many other Town fans – desperately trying to put my finger on what has gone wrong this season.

Why have we gone from apparent promotion candidates, to relegation fodder, in so few months? Even a genius would struggle to execute such a transformation.

For me, it is Roy Keane’s belated squad reconstruction which has been at the centre of our problems. As we have tried to bed in umpteen new players, matches have come thick and fast; matches we have failed to win, of course. As each week has gone by, the challenge of breaking our duck has become increasingly tough.

Such thoughts inevitably raise the question of whether this revolution was actually necessary - could we have got by with some simple tweaks to last season’s underperforming squad? And, if not, should Keane have noticed sooner the scale of the rebuilding which was necessary?

I am in no doubt that the answer to that first question is a resounding, yes - revolution was essential. For a long time, I lived under the misapprehension that we were a sliver away from being promotion contenders. But, the reality is that, as a squad and first team, Town were far worse last season than we perhaps thought we were at the time. Even without Roy Keane’s rebuilding programme, we would have been staring relegation in the face this season.

Cast your mind back to last April. Parachuted into the Town squad with eight matches to go, Spurs Giovani Dos Santos provided an injection of creativity into an otherwise pallid squad of players, at the tail end of a grey and dreary season. A little bundle of energy, he stepped up to make a contribution in a string of matches.

Gio’s contribution was a rare one. He was an unusually high quality player to be offered into the Championship on loan. In a sense, his contribution was an aberration. And it papered over some fast growing cracks.

A quick glance at last season’s league table shows that Town finished ninth in the Championship at the end of last season – a respectable position which has been grasped by many so-called 'Keane outers', as evidence that we were just a snip here and a snip there away from being promotion material.

However, that ninth place was achieved with a hefty eight points fewer than the final play-off place, and 17 points from an automatic place. The reality is that we were way off the promotion pace.

If you account for the Gio effect, we were even further adrift. Without Dos Santos, we would have been at least four goals and six points worse off – this is without factoring in any assists provided by the tricky Mexican. Without Gio, then, we would have finished 12th on 60 points, 14 points off the play-offs, 23 points from automatic. In fact, we were closer to relegation than promotion – Norwich’s woeful team were just 14 points away.

If you look at the last eight matches alone, after Gio arrived, we gathered 12 points from a possible 24 – a reasonable, but not brilliant, total. But without Gio, it would have been six points from 24. That is better than our terrible start to this season, granted - but from a settled, established team.

It was relegation form – a points per match ratio worse than any of the bottom three teams achieved across the season. Anyone who argues that the team which finished last season was a couple of tweaks away from promotion are deluding themselves.

So, why didn’t Keane spot this sooner? It is well documented that, soon after arriving at Portman Road, our new manager felt he had a decent squad to build on. Keane said publicly that one or two signings were all that was needed.

It is certainly true that, by and large, Jim Magilton pulled together a reliable bunch of professionals. His impatience with some big name members of his squad saw Jim cast off a number of playing staff over his three years - and also meant that those he brought in were clean-cut, dedicated professionals. This would have impressed Keane from the outset, certainly.

Perhaps he was also seduced by Gio’s contribution. With the Mexican in the team, we had a spark of flair which took the pressure off other players, like Walters, Peters, Stead and Pablo, and helped create space across the field – and took pressure off our back four.

Keane’s view was based on observations at training and the last two matches of the season – the new manager’s only two league victories, to date, of course. They were matches in which Dos Santos played a significant part, helping boost the confidence of his temporary team-mates and rounding out an average team, making them appear pretenders to the promotion crown.

Of course, if may be simply that Keane is a poor judge of a player. This is the view of plenty of fans right now. To be honest, I would use the likes of Leadbitter, Rosenior, Edwards and Colback as evidence that he knows a decent player when he sees one – and that he is looking to build a new approach to the game at Portman Road, one built on a solid middle and flair on the flanks.

None of this obscures the terrible start to the season we are currently enduring. But it is clear that Keane was correct to do what he has done – he was spot on in identifying the weaknesses in our team and right to dismantle an established (but ultimately poor) squad of players, whose natural level was in the lower half of the Championship.

Only time will tell whether Keane’s revolution ultimately results in the promotion we all crave.

But the alternative was clear. A relegation battle would have been on the cards this season, in any case.

warwickblue added 22:29 - Oct 15 Franzgumm - Another well-considered and thought-provoking piece. Well done. I think that the haphazard squad reconstruction and unsettled squad has been the key factor in our poor start. Remember the furious posts that used to appear on here slating Jim for playing around with team selection? - and that was with a comparatively stable squad. Honestly, the last couple of games I can say that I have struggled to keep up with who is who out there on the pitch in a blue shirt. My hope is that in the remaining part of the season we can at least achieve some squad and team stability. It is all too patchy and shapeless on the field at the moment; but where the responsibility for our current plight lies is beyond my analysis.

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*REMOVED* added 22:40 - Oct 15 I agree with you except for what Roy's comments upon arrival meant. A new manager never shows up at his first press conference and says, 'All our players are crap.' His statements were the bland, political statements one would expect from a new manager; you can almost make them up in your head: "I've inherited a very good squad," "We only need one or two quality signings," "Everyone will have a chance to fight for their place." Therefore, I guess the point I'm making is that a manager's comments in his first press conference should be taken with 25 grains of salt.

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north_stand77 added 22:52 - Oct 15 ScottCandage -Does that include his statement that Town would achieve Promotion in the first season?? or at worst, the second season. How I wish he hadnt of said that - we could of perhaps got away with everything for a little bit longer!
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dantown added 22:52 - Oct 15 Couldn't agree more with this article.. Last seasons team was bloody woeful.. Remember the scum played us of the park at there place & they were a shocking team. I'm so sick of all the doom & gloom keane out idiots on this site.. We are at the beginning of a rebuilding process & keane has got a massive job on his hands.. This will not happen overnight.. So please can we give keane a reasonable crack before we call 4 his head !

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*REMOVED* added 22:57 - Oct 15 NS, in my opinion, because of his contract parameters and Marcus's goals, that was a definite statement of future ambition. However, such a statement would not be of the same "class" as statements regarding his opinion on the present state of the club and its players.
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Lightningboy added 23:16 - Oct 15 I hardly think that 8pts out of the play-offs and 17pts from the top 2 was that far away from turning us into promotion material..Jim's last 2 seasons were good at home/terrible away & average at home/very good away...Jim shot himself in the foot last season by tweaking the team almost every game...I think had he been kept on he would've learned from the mistakes of last season and confidently think we'd be in or around the play-offs at this moment in time...I simply don't trust Keane to sort this mess out.

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BoxerBlue added 00:23 - Oct 16 spot on dantown
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davray9 added 00:33 - Oct 16 An informative article. With so many employees at the club advising Roy on the existing players plus previously researched and earmarked targets, it's not surprising that SOME signings and departures have, with hindsight been misjudged. More recent signings have been Roy's decision too, and of better quality. He has played with the best, one would hope he has picked up a wee bit of knowledge about players essential qualities on the way. How many of us starting a new job as a manager would not be influenced by current assistants apraisal of staff. He has not had a six month probation period yet, and my guess is more staff being culled/found out, with better replacements sort by Roy and his backroom staff. some of the current squad have become stagnant over time, and it would be best for all concerned to let the manager bring in whoever he sees fit. I will judge Roy after the probational period and not before,(I ran the whole length of the stand at Bradford to shout a wholehearted DUNCAN OUT! after it became obvious that he was not up to the task in hand, but I was backing him to do things his way for a more than reasonable amount of time before that ) it is ludicrous to think anyone could lose their job without time to settle in and assess the quality of the stock they have inherited. We will find out soon enough if we have a good manager or not and most of us know the axe will be sharpened sufficiently enough or discarded when apraisal day comes...in the mean time more support like the Barnsley match PLEASE!

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RKBA added 01:00 - Oct 16 First of all I agree with you that the rebuild was necessary. But a few points I'd like to make on your article... -I think you're being excessively damning in your suggestion we'd have been in a relegation battle anyway. The squad Keane inherited was a squad of very average Championship players, a few hard grafters, destined to finish 10th-15th or so. Just a mid table side that without the instability the rebuild has brought wouldn't have faced a relegation battle. But for sure we weren't just a few tweaks away from promotion, maybe with about 3 signings we could have been outside shots for scraping into the play-offs, but that isn't good enough for the aspirations of ME and co. Although the rebuild has been unsuccessful so far, it really was necessary to ever compete properly in this division and hopefully get out of it. - You say we achieved 12 points from 24 with Gio. But he was injured during the middle so didn't play the last 8 games. The games he was involved in actually yielded 15pts from 24, pretty decent going, and yes it really did paper over some cracks. - Finally, I don't really see how you can say taking away Gio's goals we'd have x less points, so that makes analysing how far away from the play-offs we'd have been without him rather pointless. Who knows how we'd have fared, although it would no doubt have been worse.

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Greektractor added 02:56 - Oct 16 good article - we need a new geo
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bayblue added 05:33 - Oct 16 If you think about it, the quality of both last season's and this season's squad is poor in that none of the assembled players have the real quality to stand out and push onto become Premiership quality players - lets face it, none of the Premiership teams have been sniffing around have they? So, and as it is for most championship managers, the idea is to weld a squad together in order to get out of this league (preferably upwards!) whereby you then buy 5-6 premiership quality players the first season and hope you stay up and then another 5-6 the next season. This current squad are only ever going to be destined as Premiership reserves at the best. What RK hasn't done is welded them into a unit and, if you believe in what you read, with his apparent style of management, is unlikely to.

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Nevadablue added 08:01 - Oct 16 Excellent and thought provoking article. I would take issue in part with the point you make about Gio's late-seasonl presence distorting the team performance. On the face of it I can see what you mean, but ultimately it was Jim and not Keane who brought him in on loan. Nothing Keane has conjured has had anything like the same impact, cue the tired old assertions that we are in a gelling process...

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dobbie73 added 08:21 - Oct 16 Good article Franzgumm! And I echo KeanoITFC09 ... spot on Dantown!
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DrJeckyll added 09:11 - Oct 16 yep bang on Dantown
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ITFC_DOM added 09:29 - Oct 16 I think this is almost spot on. Although in amongst rebuilding the squad i think we let too much young tallent go, with the likes of danny haynes and jordan rhodes. It may not be the cause of our problems but it would help to have them. Also I dont like keanes idea that he can just let players think they can go. with mcauley and stead thinking they will be off come january. Atleast find a replacement before you make theem want to leave. I think the squad is insecure because of this. They will feel they cant have an off day or they will be the next person told they can leave. How can you build a squad with no security and low confidence?

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brogansnose added 10:44 - Oct 16 Agree with all of that Gummy and you Dantown. I would also add that you need to take into consideration the amount of times that Plug saved us from getting beaten or getting us a draw. We were also lucky in quite a few games such as Barnsley at home. Probably why we havent had a lot this year. I truly believe that we were fortunate and that if you anylised last season we ,despite the table ,were nearer being relegation candidates.We couldnt beat Charlton home or away and were slaughtered by S'hampton.Carrot road was horrendous... i could go on but i wont, im only now getting over the coma of last season. In a perverse way im enjoying this season more ,admittedly in a self harming type way.

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dobbie73 added 11:09 - Oct 16 "In a perverse way im enjoying this season more ,admittedly in a self harming type way." I know exactly what you mean brogansnose! Despite the threat of relegation and implosion, there is something cathartic about this season so far (if that is the right word to use). Last season was so drab and plain awful that almost anything would be better! Obviously I hope we DON'T go down, but if we did, it may not be the end of the world. Seems to have done Leicester no harm at all! On the other hand, Leeds have no been there 3 years, and Oxford/Luton/Swindon/Bradford went through the divisions like a dose of laxative .... Here's to exciting times at one end of the table or the other! *CLINK*

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